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Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Erik A. Roth, Scott Anthony, Clayton Christensen

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CHAPTER ONE

THE SIGNALS OF CHANGE

Where Are the Opportunities?

How can we tell that the formula that led to success in the past might not work in the future, or that firms that were successful in the past might not be successful in the future? What specific developments matter the most? What customer groups should we watch to detect such developments? How do contextual factors influence innovation?

The first part of our analytical process shows how to identify the signs that indicate something potentially important is happening. Looking at nonconsumers, undershot customers, and overshot customers and evaluating the nonmarket context for innovation allows us to answer the signals of change question: “Are there signs that someone is capitalizing ...

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