Chapter 3

Educating Your Guesses

If you’re reading this in page order instead of just flipping pages and browsing, then you and I have a problem of paradox. I just finished, at the end of the last chapter, dismissing the big general market forecast as a validator of a sales forecast. I pretty much pushed using detailed assumptions instead, rather than looking for the answer as if it were a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

And here we are at this chapter, about gathering information. That seems like a contradiction to me. The way I reconcile those two seemingly opposing views is to remind myself that I use the weather forecast metaphor, and a good weather forecaster wants as much general data about winds and waters and past history as possible, ...

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