Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications

Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications

by Marvin Rausand
Released August 2011
Publisher(s): Wiley
ISBN: 9780470637647

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Book description

An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems.

The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications.

  • Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments.

  • Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process.

Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Table of contents

  1. Cover Page
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright
  4. Dedication
  5. CONTENTS
  6. Preface
  7. Acknowledgments
  8. PART I: INTRODUCTION TO RISK ASSESSMENT
    1. CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
      1. 1.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 1.2 RISK ANALYSIS, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT
      3. 1.3 THE STUDY OBJECT
      4. 1.4 ACCIDENT CATEGORIES
      5. 1.5 RISK IN OUR MODERN SOCIETY
      6. 1.6 SAFETY LEGISLATION
      7. 1.7 RISK AND DECISION-MAKING
      8. 1.8 STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK
      9. 1.9 ADDITIONAL READING
    2. CHAPTER 2: THE WORDS OF RISK ANALYSIS
      1. 2.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 2.2 EVENTS AND SCENARIOS
      3. 2.3 PROBABILITY AND FREQUENCY
      4. 2.4 ASSETS AND CONSEQUENCES
      5. 2.5 RISK
      6. 2.6 BARRIERS
      7. 2.7 ACCIDENTS
      8. 2.8 UNCERTAINTY
      9. 2.9 VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE
      10. 2.10 SAFETY AND SECURITY
      11. 2.11 ADDITIONAL READING
    3. CHAPTER 3: HAZARDS AND THREATS
      1. 3.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 3.2 HAZARDS
      3. 3.3 CLASSIFICATION OF HAZARDS
      4. 3.4 THREATS
      5. 3.5 ENERGY SOURCES
      6. 3.6 TECHNICAL FAILURES
      7. 3.7 HUMAN AND ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS
      8. 3.8 ADDITIONAL READING
    4. CHAPTER 4: HOW TO MEASURE AND EVALUATE RISK
      1. 4.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 4.2 RISK INDICATORS
      3. 4.3 RISK TO PEOPLE
      4. 4.4 RISK MATRICES
      5. 4.5 RISK ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA
      6. 4.6 CLOSURE
      7. 4.7 ADDITIONAL READING
    5. CHAPTER 5: RISK MANAGEMENT
      1. 5.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 5.2 RISK MANAGEMENT
      3. 5.3 BOW-TIE ANALYSIS
      4. 5.4 RISK ANALYSIS
      5. 5.5 RISK EVALUATION
      6. 5.6 RISK CONTROL AND RISK REDUCTION
      7. 5.7 COMPETENCE REQUIREMENTS
      8. 5.8 QUALITY REQUIREMENTS
      9. 5.9 ADDITIONAL READING
    6. CHAPTER 6: ACCIDENT MODELS
      1. 6.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 6.2 ACCIDENT CAUSATION
      3. 6.3 ACCIDENT MODELS
      4. 6.4 ENERGY AND BARRIER MODELS
      5. 6.5 SEQUENTIAL ACCIDENT MODELS
      6. 6.6 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ACCIDENT MODELS
      7. 6.7 EVENT CAUSATION AND SEQUENCING MODELS
      8. 6.8 SYSTEMIC ACCIDENT MODELS
      9. 6.9 ADDITIONAL READING
    7. CHAPTER 7: DATA FOR RISK ANALYSIS
      1. 7.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 7.2 TYPES OF DATA
      3. 7.3 ACCIDENT DATA
      4. 7.4 COMPONENT RELIABILITY DATA
      5. 7.5 HUMAN ERROR DATA
      6. 7.6 SOFTWARE FAILURE DATA
      7. 7.7 EXPERT JUDGMENT
      8. 7.8 DATA DOSSIER
      9. 7.9 ADDITIONAL READING
  9. PART II: RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS AND APPLICATIONS
    1. CHAPTER 8: RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
      1. 8.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 8.2 PLAN AND PREPARE
      3. 8.3 REPORTING
      4. 8.4 UPDATING
      5. 8.5 ADDITIONAL READING
    2. CHAPTER 9: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
      1. 9.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 9.2 HAZARD LOG
      3. 9.3 CHECKLIST METHODS
      4. 9.4 PRELIMINARY HAZARD ANALYSIS
      5. 9.5 CHANGE ANALYSIS
      6. 9.6 FMECA
      7. 9.7 HAZOP
      8. 9.8 SWIFT
      9. 9.9 MASTER LOGIC DIAGRAM
      10. 9.10 ADDITIONAL READING
    3. CHAPTER 10: CAUSAL AND FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
      1. 10.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 10.2 CAUSE AND EFFECT DIAGRAM ANALYSIS
      3. 10.3 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
      4. 10.4 BAYESIAN NETWORKS
      5. 10.5 MARKOV METHODS
      6. 10.6 PETRI NETS
      7. 10.7 ADDITIONAL READING
    4. CHAPTER 11: DEVELOPMENT OF ACCIDENT SCENARIOS
      1. 11.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 11.2 EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
      3. 11.3 EVENT SEQUENCE DIAGRAMS
      4. 11.4 CAUSE-CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS
      5. 11.5 ESCALATION PROBLEMS
      6. 11.6 CONSEQUENCE MODELS
      7. 11.7 ADDITIONAL READING
    5. CHAPTER 12: BARRIERS AND BARRIER ANALYSIS
      1. 12.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 12.2 BARRIERS AND BARRIER CLASSIFICATION
      3. 12.3 BARRIER PROPERTIES
      4. 12.4 SAFETY INSTRUMENTED SYSTEMS
      5. 12.5 HAZARD-BARRIER MATRICES
      6. 12.6 SAFETY BARRIER DIAGRAMS
      7. 12.7 BOW-TIE DIAGRAMS
      8. 12.8 ENERGY FLOW/BARRIER ANALYSIS
      9. 12.9 LAYER OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS
      10. 12.10 BARRIER AND OPERATIONAL RISK ANALYSIS
      11. 12.11 ADDITIONAL READING
    6. CHAPTER 13: HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
      1. 13.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 13.2 TASK ANALYSIS
      3. 13.3 HUMAN ERROR IDENTIFICATION
      4. 13.4 HRA METHODS
      5. 13.5 ADDITIONAL READING
    7. CHAPTER 14: JOB SAFETY ANALYSIS
      1. 14.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 14.2 OBJECTIVES AND APPLICATIONS
      3. 14.3 ANALYSIS PROCEDURE
      4. 14.4 RESOURCES AND SKILLS REQUIRED
      5. 14.5 ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS
      6. 14.6 ADDITIONAL READING
    8. CHAPTER 15: COMMON-CAUSE FAILURES
      1. 15.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 15.2 BASIC CONCEPTS
      3. 15.3 CAUSES OF CCFs
      4. 15.4 MODELING OF CCFs
      5. 15.5 THE BETA-FACTOR MODEL
      6. 15.6 MORE COMPLEX CCF MODELS
      7. 15.7 ADDITIONAL READING
    9. CHAPTER 16: UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
      1. 16.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 16.2 UNCERTAINTY
      3. 16.3 CATEGORIES OF UNCERTAINTY
      4. 16.4 CONTRIBUTORS TO UNCERTAINTY
      5. 16.5 UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION
      6. 16.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
      7. 16.7 ADDITIONAL READING
    10. CHAPTER 17: DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATIONS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
      1. 17.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 17.2 DEFENSE AND DEFENSE INDUSTRY
      3. 17.3 NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY
      4. 17.4 PROCESS INDUSTRY
      5. 17.5 OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
      6. 17.6 SPACE INDUSTRY
      7. 17.7 AVIATION
      8. 17.8 RAILWAY TRANSPORT
      9. 17.9 MARINE TRANSPORT
      10. 17.10 MACHINERY SYSTEMS
      11. 17.11 OTHER APPLICATION AREAS
      12. 17.12 CLOSURE
  10. PART III: APPENDICES
    1. Appendix A: Elements of Probability Theory
      1. A.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. A.2 OUTCOMES AND EVENTS
      3. A.3 PROBABILITY
      4. A.4 RANDOM VARIABLES
      5. A.5 SOME SPECIFIC DISTRIBUTIONS
      6. A.6 POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION
      7. A.7 BAYESIAN APPROACH
      8. A.8 PROBABILITY OF FREQUENCY APPROACH
      9. A.9 ADDITIONAL READING
    2. Appendix B
    3. Appendix C: Glossary
    4. References
  11. Index
  12. STATISTICS IN PRACTICE

Product information

  • Title: Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications
  • Author(s): Marvin Rausand
  • Release date: August 2011
  • Publisher(s): Wiley
  • ISBN: 9780470637647