Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition

Preface

This book is about risk analysis—basic ideas, principles and methods. Both theory and practice are covered. A number of books exist presenting the many risk analysis methods and tools, such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and Bayesian networks. In this book we go one step back and discuss the role of the analyses in risk management. How such analyses should be planned, executed and used, such that they meet the professional standards for risk analyses and at the same time are useful in a practical decision-making context. In the book we review the common risk analysis methods, but the emphasis is placed on the context and applications. By using examples from different areas, we highlight the various elements that are part of the planning, execution and use of the risk analysis method. What are the main challenges we face? What type of methods should we choose? How can we avoid scientific mistakes? The examples used are taken from, among others, the transport sector, the petroleum industry and ICT (Information and Communication Technology). For each example we define a decision-making problem, and show how the analyses can be used to provide adequate decision support. The book covers both safety (accidental events) and security (intentional acts).

This book is based on the recommended approach to risk analysis described and discussed in Aven (2012a,d). The basic idea is that risk analysis should produce a broad risk picture, highlighting uncertainties beyond ...