Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition

Chapter 11Risk analysis process for municipalities

This chapter presents a risk analysis process for municipalities. The presentation is partly based on Wiencke et al. (2007).

11.1 Planning

11.1.1 Problem definition

The objective of this analysis is to identify risk critical events in a region consisting of several municipalities and to identify the events that are design-critical for the emergency preparedness at the regional level. These events will be followed up in a preparedness analysis. The goal is not to quantify the risk level within the region, but rather, to rank the events in order to select those that are design-critical for the emergency preparedness task. Minor events that are dealt with on a daily basis by the municipal and regional stakeholders are not covered by the analysis. The analysis involves the municipalities and the region in normal operation for all times of the year. Conditions that arise in states of emergency and war are not included in the analysis.

The focus of the analysis is on safety for persons, primarily against events that can cause a large number of fatalities or injuries and that thereby will place a major demand on the preparedness resources within the municipalities and in the region. In addition, events that could affect several consequence dimensions are highlighted, such as personal safety, the external environment and cultural heritage (e.g. fires in very old buildings).

11.1.2 Selection of analysis method

Based on the objective ...