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Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition

Book Description

Risk Analysis, Second Edition

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway

A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis.

Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis.

This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process.

Key features:

  • Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications.

  • Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities

  • Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples.

  • Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences.

  • This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.

    Table of Contents

    1. Cover
    2. Title Page
    3. Copyright
    4. Preface
    5. Chapter 1: What is a risk analysis?
      1. 1.1 Why risk analysis?
      2. 1.2 Risk management
      3. 1.3 Examples: decision situations
    6. chapter 2: What is risk?
      1. 2.1 The risk concept and its description
      2. 2.2 Vulnerability
      3. 2.3 How to describe risk quantitatively
      4. 2.4 Qualitative judgements
    7. Chapter 3: The risk analysis process: planning
      1. 3.1 Problem definition
      2. 3.2 Selection of analysis method
    8. Chapter 4: The risk analysis process: risk assessment
      1. 4.1 Identification of initiating events
      2. 4.2 Cause analysis
      3. 4.3 Consequence analysis
      4. 4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties
      5. 4.5 Risk picture: risk presentation
    9. Chapter 5: The risk analysis process: risk treatment
      1. 5.1 Comparisons of alternatives
      2. 5.2 Management review and judgement
    10. Chapter 6: Risk analysis methods
      1. 6.1 Coarse risk analysis
      2. 6.2 Job safety analysis
      3. 6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis
      4. 6.4 Hazard and operability studies
      5. 6.5 SWIFT
      6. 6.6 Fault tree analysis
      7. 6.7 Event tree analysis
      8. 6.8 Bayesian networks
      9. 6.9 Monte Carlo simulation
    11. Chapter 7: Safety measures for a road tunnel
      1. 7.1 Planning
      2. 7.2 Risk assessment
      3. 7.3 Risk treatment
    12. Chapter 8: Risk analysis process for an offshore installation
      1. 8.1 Planning
      2. 8.2 Risk analysis
      3. 8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives
      4. 8.4 Management review and judgement
    13. Chapter 9: Production assurance
      1. 9.1 Planning
      2. 9.2 Risk analysis
      3. 9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives
      4. 9.4 Management review and judgement. Decision
    14. Chapter 10: Risk analysis process for a cash depot
      1. 10.1 Planning
      2. 10.2 Risk analysis
      3. 10.3 Risk picture
      4. 10.4 Risk-reducing measures
      5. 10.5 Management review and judgement. Decision
      6. 10.6 Discussion
    15. Chapter 11: Risk analysis process for municipalities
      1. 11.1 Planning
      2. 11.2 Risk assessment
      3. 11.3 Risk treatment
    16. Chapter 12: Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise
      1. 12.1 Planning
      2. 12.2 Risk analysis
      3. 12.3 Overall risk picture
      4. 12.4 Risk treatment
    17. Chapter 13: Discussion
      1. 13.1 Risk analysis as a decision support tool
      2. 13.2 Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values
      3. 13.3 Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses
      4. 13.4 Reflection on approaches, methods and results
      5. 13.5 Limitations of the causal chain approach
      6. 13.6 Risk perspectives
      7. 13.7 Scientific basis
      8. 13.8 The implications of the limitations of risk assessment
      9. 13.9 Critical systems and activities
      10. 13.10 On the difference between risk as seen from the perspectives of the analysts and management
      11. 13.11 Conclusions
    18. Appendix A: Probability calculus and statistics
      1. A.1 The meaning of a probability
      2. A.2 Probability calculus
      3. A.3 Probability distributions: expected value
      4. A.4 Statistics (Bayesian statistics)
    19. Appendix B: Introduction to reliability analysis
      1. B.1 Reliability of systems composed of components
      2. B.2 Production system
      3. B.3 Safety system
    20. Appendix C: Approach for selecting risk analysis methods
      1. C.1 Expected consequences
      2. C.2 Uncertainty factors
      3. C.3 Frame conditions
      4. C.4 Selection of a specific method
    21. Appendix D: Terminology
      1. D.1 Risk management: Relationships between key terms
    22. Bibliography
    23. Index
    24. End User License Agreement