Considering Ranges of Estimates
A more rational approach to addressing inaccuracy in estimates is to consider a range of estimated values. The estimator is asked to create three separate estimates for each factor:
A “most-favorable” estimate— The most-desirable value the estimated factor can reasonably be expected to have. It's not the absolute most desirable value; it's just the best one that has a reasonable chance of coming true. Estimators sometimes assume this to be the value with a 1 in 20 (or 5%) chance of being exceeded.
A “fair” estimate— This is the estimate that appears most reasonable given careful analysis of the situation. This estimate is assumed to be the 50/50 break-even, the actual outcome should be equally likely to be higher ...
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