Knowledge Drives Estimation Accuracy
The most significant driver of estimation accuracy is, simply, knowledge. The more that's known about the factor being estimated, the more accurate that estimate is likely to be. When an organization has a lot of solid historical data about that factor, fairly accurate estimates can be produced (for example, using estimation by statistical methods as discussed in Chapter 22). Because of this, and the fact that historical data are usually fairly inexpensive to collect, it's a good idea to collect your own historical data for use in future decision analyses. With good historical data, business decisions can be made with a much higher degree of confidence (lower uncertainty).
Most organizations don't have historical ...
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