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Reliability: Modeling, Prediction, and Optimization

Book Description

Bringing together business and engineering to reliability analysis With manufactured products exploding in numbers and complexity, reliability studies play an increasingly critical role throughout a product's entire life cycle-from design to post-sale support. Reliability: Modeling, Prediction, and Optimization presents a remarkably broad framework for the analysis of the technical and commercial aspects of product reliability, integrating concepts and methodologies from such diverse areas as engineering, materials science, statistics, probability, operations research, and management. Written in plain language by two highly respected experts in the field, this practical work provides engineers, operations managers, and applied statisticians with both qualitative and quantitative tools for solving a variety of complex, real-world reliability problems. A wealth of examples and case studies accompanies:

  • Comprehensive coverage of assessment, prediction, and improvement at each stage of a product's life cycle

  • Clear explanations of modeling and analysis for hardware ranging from a single part to whole systems

  • Thorough coverage of test design and statistical analysis of reliability data

  • A special chapter on software reliability

  • Coverage of effective management of reliability, product support, testing, pricing, and related topics

  • Lists of sources for technical information, data, and computer programs

  • Hundreds of graphs, charts, and tables, as well as over 500 references

  • PowerPoint slides are available from the Wiley editorial department.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover Page
  2. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright
  5. Dedication
  6. Contents
  7. Preface
  8. Part A: Context of Reliability Analysis
    1. Chapter 1: An Overview
      1. 1.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 1.2 ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES OF PRODUCTS AND SYSTEMS
      3. 1.3 SYSTEM AND PRODUCT DETERIORATION AND FAILURE
      4. 1.4 CONCEPTS AND HISTORY OF RELIABILITY
      5. 1.5 PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE AND RELIABILITY
      6. 1.6 BUYER'S PERSPECTIVE
      7. 1.7 MANUFACTURER'S PERSPECTIVE
      8. 1.8 FRAMEWORK FOR SOLVING RELIABILITY RELATED PROBLEMS
      9. 1.9 OBJECTIVES OF THIS BOOK
      10. 1.10 APPROACH
      11. 1.11 OUTLINE OF THIS BOOK
      12. NOTES
      13. EXERCISES
    2. Chapter 2: Illustrative Cases and Data Sets
      1. 2.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 2.2 RELIABILITY DATA
      3. 2.3 CASES
      4. NOTES
      5. EXERCISES
  9. Part B: Basic Reliability Methodology
    1. Chapter 3: Collection and Preliminary Analysis of Failure Data
      1. 3.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 3.2 DATA-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
      3. 3.3 ATTRIBUTE DATA
      4. 3.4 TEST DATA ON PRODUCT LIFETIMES (FAILURE DATA)
      5. 3.5 EFFECT OF DATA STRUCTURE ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
      6. 3.6 BASIC DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
      7. 3.7 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY DATA
      8. NOTES
      9. EXERCISES
    2. Chapter 4: Probability Distributions for Modeling Time to Failure
      1. 4.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 4.2 RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
      3. 4.3 BASIC DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS
      4. 4.4 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS—I (BASIC DISTRIBUTIONS)
      5. 4.5 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS—II (DERIVED DISTRIBUTIONS)
      6. 4.6 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS—III (INVOLVING SEVERAL BASIC DISTRIBUTIONS)
      7. 4.7 CLASSIFICATION OF FAILURE DISTRIBUTIONS
      8. 4.8 SHAPES OF DENSITY FUNCTIONS
      9. 4.9 SHAPES OF FAILURE-RATE FUNCTIONS
      10. 4.10 EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
      11. 4.11 CONCLUSIONS
      12. NOTES
      13. EXERCISES
    3. Chapter 5: Basic Statistical Methods for Data Analysis
      1. 5.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 5.2 ESTIMATION
      3. 5.3 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION
      4. 5.4 ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONS OF PARAMETERS
      5. 5.5 TOLERANCE INTERVALS
      6. 5.6 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
      7. NOTES
      8. EXERCISES
  10. Part C: Reliability Modeling and Estimation
    1. Chapter 6: Modeling Failures at the Component Level
      1. 6.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 6.2 MODELING FAILURE MECHANISMS
      3. 6.3 OVERSTRESS FAILURE MECHANISMS
      4. 6.4 WEAR-OUT FAILURE MECHANISMS
      5. 6.5 STATIC RELIABILITY: STRESS–STRENGTH MODELS
      6. 6.6 MODELING FAILURE BASED ON THE FAILURE MECHANISM
      7. 6.7 MULTISTATS MODELS
      8. 6.8 MODELING FAILURES OF REPAIRED ITEMS
      9. 6.9 MODELING FAILURES OVER TIME
      10. 6.10 MODELING ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
      11. 6.11 MODELING FAILURES OF INTERMITTENTLY USED ITEMS
      12. NOTES
      13. EXERCISES
    2. Chapter 7: Modeling and Analysis of Multi-Component Systems
      1. 7.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 7.2 SYSTEM CHARACTERIZATION AND FAILURES
      3. 7.3 BLACK-BOX MODELING
      4. 7.4 WHITE-BOX MODELING
      5. 7.5 FAILURE MODE, EFFECTS, AND CRITICALITY ANALYSIS
      6. 7.6 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
      7. 7.7 RELIABILITY BLOCK DIAGRAM REPRESENTATIONS AND ANALYSIS
      8. 7.8 RELIABILITY AND STRUCTURAL IMPORTANCE OF A COMPONENT
      9. 7.9 MARKOVIAN MODEL FORMULATIONS
      10. 7.10 DEPENDENT FAILURES
      11. 7.11 FAILURE INTERACTION MODELS
      12. NOTES
      13. EXERCISES
    3. Chapter 8: Advanced Statistical Methods for Data Analysis
      1. 8.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 8.2 ANALYSIS OF GROUPED DATA
      3. 8.3 ANALYSIS OF CENSORED DATA
      4. 8.4 BAYESIAN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
      5. 8.5 USE OF AGGREGATED DATA IN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
      6. 8.6 ESTIMATION OF SYSTEM RELIABILITY
      7. 8.7 OTHER INFERENCE PROBLEMS IN RELIABILITY
      8. NOTES
      9. EXERCISES
    4. Chapter 9: Software Reliability
      1. 9.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 9.2 SOFTWARE QUALITY AND RELIABILITY ISSUES
      3. 9.3 DESIGN OF RELIABILE SOFTWARE
      4. 9.4 MODELING AND MEASUREMENT OF SOFTWARE RELIABILITY
      5. 9.5 SOFTWARE TESTING PROCEDURES
      6. 9.6 MANAGEMENT OF SOFTWARE RELIABILITY
      7. EXERCISES
    5. Chapter 10: Design of Experiments and Analysis of Variance
      1. 10.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 10.2 BASIC CONCEPTS OF EXPERIMENTATION
      3. 10.3 SOME BASIC EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
      4. 10.4 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE I. THE COMPLETELY RANDOMIZED DESIGN
      5. 10.5 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE II. FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTS
      6. 10.6 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE III. COMPLETE BLOCK DESIGNS
      7. 10.7 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE IV. BIBD AND FRACTIONAL FACTORIAL DESIGNS
      8. 10.8 REGRESSION, CORRELATION, AND COVARIANCE ANALYSIS
      9. 10.9 ACCELERATED TEST DESIGNS
      10. NOTES
      11. EXERCISES
    6. Chapter 11: Model Selection and Validation
      1. 11.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 11.2 GRAPHICAL METHODS
      3. 11.3 GOODNESS-OF-FIT TESTS
      4. 11.4 MODEL SELECTION
      5. 11.5 MODEL VALIDATION
      6. NOTES
      7. EXERCISES
  11. Part D: Reliability Management, Improvement, and Optimization
    1. Chapter 12: Reliability Management
      1. 12.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 12.2 PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE
      3. 12.3 STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
      4. 12.4 RELIABILITY AND QUALITY
      5. 12.5 TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT (TQM)
      6. 12.6 STRATEGIC RELIABILITY MANAGEMENT (MANUFACTURER'S PERSPECTIVE)
      7. 12.7 STRATEGIC RELIABILITY MANAGEMENT (BUYER'S PERSPECTIVE)
      8. 12.8 RELIABILITY PROGRAMS
      9. 12.9 RELIABILITY, RISK, AND LIABILITY
      10. 12.10 CUSTOMER ASSURANCE
      11. 12.11 AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL
      12. 12.12 QUANTITATIVE APPROACH TO RELIABILITY MANAGEMENT
      13. 12.13 SOFTWARE SAFETY ISSUES
      14. 12.14 SOFTWARE MAINTAINABILITY
      15. 12.15 CONCLUDING COMMENTS
    2. Chapter 13: Reliability Engineering
      1. 13.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 13.2 THE ENGINEERING PROCESS
      3. 13.3 DESIGN FOR RELIABILITY (DFR)
      4. 13.4 DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT
      5. 13.5 RELIABILITY ALLOCATION AND APPORTIONMENT
      6. 13.6 DESIGNING AT THE COMPONENT LEVEL
      7. 13.7 MANUFACTURING AND RELIABILITY DEGRADATION
      8. 13.8 CONTROL OF RELIABILITY DEGRADATION
      9. 13.9 TESTING
      10. 13.10 BURN-IN
      11. NOTES
      12. EXERCISES
    3. Chapter 14: Reliability Prediction and Assessment
      1. 14.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 14.2 CONTEXT OF PRODUCT RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND ASSESSMENT
      3. 14.3 RELIABILITY PREDICTION
      4. 14.4 THE ROLE OF TESTING
      5. 14.5 ACCELERATED TESTS
      6. 14.6 RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT
      7. NOTES
      8. EXERCISES
    4. Chapter 15: Reliability Improvement
      1. 15.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 15.2 REDUNDANCY
      3. 15.3 ACTIVE (HOT STANDBY) REDUNDANCY
      4. 15.4 COLD STANDBY REDUNDANCY
      5. 15.5 WARM STANDBY REDUNDANCY
      6. 15.6 RELIABILITY GROWTH
      7. 15.7 DISCRETE RELIABILITY GROWTH MODELS
      8. 15.8 CONTINUOUS RELIABILITY IMPROVEMENT MODELS
      9. NOTES
      10. EXERCISES
    5. Chapter 16: Maintenance of Unreliable Systems
      1. 16.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 16.2 APPROACHES TO MAINTENANCE
      3. 16.3 MAINTENANCE CLASSIFICATION AND COSTS
      4. 16.4 MAINTENANCE MODELS AT THE PART LEVEL
      5. 16.5 MAINTENANCE MODELS AT THE SYSTEM LEVEL
      6. 16.6 MAINTAINABILITY AND LOGISTICS
      7. 16.7 MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
      8. NOTES
      9. EXERCISES
    6. Chapter 17: Warranties and Service Contracts
      1. 17.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 17.2 WARRANTY—CONCEPT AND ROLE
      3. 17.3 CLASSIFICATION OF WARRANTIES
      4. 17.4 WARRANTY COST ANALYSIS
      5. 17.5 WARRANTY COST WITH DYNAMIC SALES
      6. 17.6 REDUNDANCY AND PRODUCT WARRANTY
      7. 17.7 EXTENDED WARRANTIES AND SERVICE CONTRACTS
      8. 17.8 WARRANTY SERVICING
      9. NOTES
      10. EXERCISES
    7. Chapter 18: Reliability and Optimization
      1. 18.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 18.2 OPTIMIZATION DURING DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT
      3. 18.3 OPTIMIZATION DURING MANUFACTURING
      4. 18.4 OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE OF UNRELIABLE SYSTEMS
      5. 18.5 OPTIMAL WARRANTY DECISIONS
      6. 18.6 ANALYSIS OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL
      7. NOTES
      8. EXERCISES
  12. Part E: Epilogue
    1. Chapter 19: Case Studies
      1. 19.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 19.2 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF AIRCRAFT WINDSHIELDS
      3. 19.3 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF CASE 2.5
      4. NOTES
      5. EXERCISES
      6. CLASS EXERCISES
    2. Chapter 20: Resource Materials
      1. 20.1 INTRODUCTION
      2. 20.2 JOURNALS AND CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
      3. 20.3 RELIABILITY RELATED STANDARDS
      4. 20.4 RELIABILITY DATA BASES
      5. 20.5 RELIABILITY SOFTWARE
      6. 20.6 CONCLUDING COMMENTS
      7. NOTES
    3. Appendix A: Probability
      1. A.1 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY
      2. A.2 MOMENT-GENERATING AND CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS
      3. A.3 TWO OR MORE RANDOM VARIABLES
      4. A.4 LAPLACE TRANSFORMS
      5. A.5 FUNCTIONS OF RANDOM VARIABLES
    4. Appendix B: Introduction to Stochastic Processes
      1. B.1 BASIC CONCEPTS
      2. B.2 MARKOV CHAINS
      3. B.3 POINT PROCESSES
      4. B.4 MARKOV PROCESSES
    5. Appendix C: Statistical Tables
    6. Appendix D: Basic Results in Optimization
      1. D.1 UNCONSTRAINED STATIC OPTIMIZATION
      2. D.2 CONSTRAINED STATIC OPTIMIZATION
      3. D.3 MULTISTAGE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION
      4. D.4 CONTINUOUS TIME DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION
      5. D.5 OTHER TOPICS
      6. NOTES
  13. References
  14. Author Index
  15. Subject Index
  16. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics