INTUITION IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD. On one hand, it plays a key role in uncertainty identification, being an amalgam of our previous experience, education, and knowledge. On the other hand, it could be too selective, deceptive, or even blind. In other words, it could be extremely biased. Recognition of the necessity of using it, along with its utter unreliability, leads us to the need to better structure uncertainty identification activities.
This chapter compares worst and best practices of uncertainty identification. The three dimensions of risk management introduced previously serve as guidelines to keep uncertainty identification focused and specific. Simple but extremely effective uncertainty identification methodologies and tools such as the Delphi technique, risk breakdown structure (RBS), bowtie diagrams, three-part naming, and so on are ...