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Project Decisions by Michael Trumper, Lev Virine

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CHAPTER 16

What Is Project Risk? or PERT and Monte Carlo

One of the fundamental questions of project management is, “What will the duration and cost of the project be, given the multiple risks and uncertainties?” The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo analysis can help to answer these and other questions. Monte Carlo analysis is a straightforward approach for dealing with complex sets of project uncertainties. However, both Monte Carlo and PERT have a number of limitations that are related to how we identify and interpret uncertainties.

HOW MUCH WILL IT REALLY COST?

With the recent increase in oil prices, the city of ...

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