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Project Decisions by Michael Trumper, Lev Virine

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CHAPTER 11

The Psychology and Politics of Estimating

There are three sources of estimation errors: political, psychological, and technical (process-related). Politics plays a large role in such errors because corporate planners often intentionally make unrealistic estimations to get their projects approved. Optimism bias, planning fallacy, the rule of Pi, and other cognitive biases also affect estimates. A number of simple techniques can improve estimations: avoid making wild guesses, do reality checks, collect relevant historical data, and perform independent assessments.

HOW DO WE MAKE ESTIMATES?

We have now come to one of the most important ...

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