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Project Decisions by Michael Trumper, Lev Virine

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CHAPTER 2

“Gut Feel” vs. Decision Analysis: Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making

“The purpose of psychology is to give us a completely different idea of the things we know best.”

—PAUL VALERY, FRENCH POET (1871–1945)

The root cause of almost all project failures is human error or misjudgment. These errors are hard to prevent, for they stem from human psychology. But decision-making is a skill that can be improved by training. By understanding how psychological heuristics and biases can affect our judgment, it is possible to mitigate their negative effects and make better decisions.

HUMAN JUDGMENT IS ALMOST ALWAYS TO BLAME ...

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