24. How to Avoid Three Big Estimation Traps
I bet there are times you need to estimate how large your project or program will be, at the gross level: “It’s bigger than a breadbasket. It’s smaller than a person on the moon.” More likely, “It’s about x people for about y months with this percentage confidence.” Or, you use a date range, as I suggest in Manage It! Your Guide to Modern, Pragmatic Project Management, (ROTPM).
But that doesn’t mean you won’t fall into estimation traps. Here are three big traps I’ve seen:
Trap 1. Someone wants you to estimate a large program, and they think that estimate is good forever and ever, amen.
Ahem. Times change. People change. Technology changes. The platform changes. Why wouldn’t your estimate change, too? ...
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