Predicting the Unpredictable

20. Estimation Depends On…

I taught my estimation workshop twice last week and once the week before, and one thing remains true: Estimation depends on the project life cycle, how the project is organized, the state of the requirements, and the number of people you have available.

I used a number of simulations to help people see how to estimate, and I noticed a number of interesting effects:

• In the public workshops, people were more willing to experiment and live with a different life cycle for a simulation (a more concurrent life cycle, or an iterative or incremental approach).
• In the on-site workshops, the participants recreated their environment, even when they said they wanted to try something new. Goes to show you how difficult it is to ...