Predicting Malicious Behavior: Tools and Techniques for Ensuring Global Security

Chapter 10

Predicting Domestic Threat

Domestic (as opposed to foreign) threat is a special case whereby malicious intent against the United States is generated and directed by a citizen. An individual who turns against his country requires very deeply seated motivation to be malicious and cause harm to his fellow citizens, especially innocent victims. A person conducting the analysis can expect to find specific incidents in the individual's past that were an insult to the person's perceived integrity, sense of what is right, and ideology, or event(s) hurting him. The malicious act is typically associated with revenge, a need to right a wrong, or, as in the case of spying for foreign governments, the added inducement of monetary gain. Basically, there are a host of complex psychological underpinnings underlying domestic threat. The fact that a perpetrator is going to damage property and/or hurt fellow citizens requires serious disenchantment.

In this chapter, we will explore domestic threat and acts perpetrated by U.S. citizens both against other citizens and against the U.S. government. Focal areas such as targeting, selection of method, and often timing of an attack are affected by past events. If we can determine how behaviors will change over time for malicious domestic acts, studying specific attacks can be used to provide the antecedent-behavior patterns to assist in predicting future malicious behavior.

Characterizing Domestic Threat

The analysis of domestic threat should ...