Predicting Malicious Behavior: Tools and Techniques for Ensuring Global Security

Chapter 2

Analyzing the Malicious Group

This chapter focuses on an introduction to the analysis of group behavior and presents findings from an automated behavior analysis (AuBA) of documents about groups presented. Although methods and procedures used for analyzing groups are highly similar to those used for analyzing and predicting the behavior of the individual, the group represents a cohesiveness that works to make behavior similar in response to common antecedents. A group is bound together by common beliefs and either stated or unstated operating principles. Conducting a complete analysis of the individual or group takes an understanding of behavior principles and the use of analytical tools. Groups of concern tend to fall into three major areas: terrorism, cyber, and criminal. Although a group's targeting, motivations, and methods are quite different across these three areas, all groups respond to external antecedents and consequences.

Perhaps it is counterintuitive, but we can't predict behavior accurately by studying past accounts of behavior alone; instead, we must identify the antecedents and consequences associated with past behaviors and how they interact with a group's motivation, guiding principles, and leadership. Once we know the context of past behaviors of groups, we can anticipate future behavior by determining the presence and absence of the identified antecedents and potential consequences in the future. I explore these areas in this chapter with groups. In ...