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Practical Data Analysis with JMP® by Robert Carver

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Smoothing Methods

As a first step in time series analysis it is often helpful to neutralize the effects of the random irregular component and thereby more clearly visualize the behavior of the other three components. Perhaps the simplest method of summarizing a time series is known as a moving average. As the name suggests, the method relies on computing means. We begin by computing the average of the first few observations from, say, y1 through ym. That average then corresponds either to the chronological center of the first m observations or serves as the "prediction" for ym+1. We then move along in the series, computing the average of observations y2through ym+1. This continues until we've passed through the entire sample, continually taking ...

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