Wisdom of Crowds
James Surowiecki writes about a crowd at a county fair that almost perfectly guessed the weight of an ox—on average. No one was as close to the right answer as the average of all guesses was. Why? If the crowd consists of partly experts in this subject matter, then each one will add some knowledge, and their errors will sum up to zero.[36]
Psychologist Edward Vul showed in an experiment that averaging multiple guesses from one person about a fact provides a better estimate than any single guess. He asked people various trivia questions. Without telling them, he repeated some of the questions a moment later. He noticed then that ...
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