A Cucumber and an Artichoke Meet at the Races

Artichoke:

Number five will win.

Cucumber:

How do you know?

Artichoke:

He won when I was here last week.

Cucumber:

Today’s race was run last week?

Artichoke:

Of course not. Each race is unique.

Cucumber:

So, he might not win today. He may get injured in the middle of the race or just have a bad day. The horses he is running against today may be faster.

Artichoke:

Sure.

Cucumber:

So, you can’t guarantee that number five will win.

Artichoke:

No, it’s a guess. But based on what I know right now, it’s my best guess.

Cucumber:

But it’s not a sure thing?

Artichoke:

No, just a guess based on empirical knowledge.

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