*13*

*Probability and statistics*

**13.1 Probability and Thomas Bayes**

The probability *P*(*A*) of an outcome in a set *A* is the sum of the probabilities *P _{j}* of all the different (mutually exclusive) outcomes

(13.1) |

For instance, if one throws two fair dice, then the probability that the sum is 2 is *P*(1, 1) = 1/36, while the probability that the sum is 3 is *P*(1, 2) + *P*(2, 1) = 1/18.

If *A* and *B* are two sets of possible outcomes, then the probability of an outcome in the **union** *A* ∪ *B* is the sum of the probabilities *P*(*A*) and *P*(*B*) minus that of ...

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