Pharmaceutical Statistics Using SAS

14.2. Introductory example: stop or go?

Decision trees are very useful for analysing decision problems. The DTREE procedure can be used to construct, plot and evaluate such decision trees. In some cases there is an enormous number, or even a continuum, of decision alternatives available. Such problems can often be attacked with optimisation routines and/or simulations (see Sections 14.5 and 14.7). In this section, we will introduce a very simple decision tree example, which will be expanded in Sections 14.4 and 14.5.

A classic decision problem is whether to invest or not. In a drug development setting, the question might be if a large and expensive Phase III programme should be launched or if the development of the drug should be discontinued. ...