Philip B. Erlanger, CMT
Phil Erlanger Research
Seasonality is a very unique indicator. It is a measure derived from historical price action extrapolated into the future. This means that its signals are known ahead of time—in many cases, substantially ahead of time.
All financial instruments have some seasonal tendencies. These tendencies are derived from a plethora of fundamental factors, known and unknown, that recur at specific time periods. A seasonal cycle is a representation of the directional tendencies of a security or index at specific times. In the following discussion, the focus is on seasonal cycles based on the calendar year.
All the thin lines in Figure 3.1 look like random streams ...