Chapter 3
A Generic Tutorial Example: Natural Risk in an Industrial Installation
This chapter introduces an example of a tutorial that will be used later to illustrate most of the mathematical derivations in the book, benefiting from a comprehensible physical interpretation and easily derivable numerical figures. It sets out the model-based design of a simple asset, an industrial installation protected by a dike, in the context of an uncertain (and thus risky) external environment, a floodable river. It includes hydraulics, sedimentology, climatology, civil engineering and economics as its phenomenological components, all of them simplified into easily understandable closed-form formulae. This chapter introduces the gradual modelling layers regarding risk and uncertainty: effective computations and results will be provided in subsequent chapters as illustrations of most of the methods discussed.
