Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: An Introduction to Statistical, Phenomenological and Computational Methods

3.3 Summary of the Example

A sequence of steps has been proposed in order to help with understanding the embedding of various statistical and numerical modelling methods within consistent studies though real studies would not necessarily follow such a schematic process. The table below identifies the chapters that provide the main illustrations of the various steps (see Table 3.17).

Exercises

The following is a list of exercises referring to the concepts developed in this chapter:

3.1 Study the monotony of a hydraulic component involving steady-flow non-uniform St-Venant equations. Discuss the appropriateness of a worst-case approach to the associated hydrologic and hydraulic parameters.

3.2 Discuss the model structure of other natural risk phenomena, such as storm damage, hail, waves and tsunami, earthquake: does it resemble that of the flood example? How would that impact upon the corresponding Steps One to Seven?

3.3 Suggest a finer model predicting the non-activation of the protection system as a function of the level of overspill and subsequent physical mechanisms: how would it change the process of Step Four? What would such a finer model bring to the study process?

Notes

1. The friction coefficient follows an inverse convention, a classic of hydraulics, according to which the more k_s decreases, the higher the friction.

2. Note that this deterministic function is defined in the real sample space which is only a restricted part of {0,1}⁷, excluding some impossible couples ...