Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets

Where the Buck Starts

In early 2006, in the Daily Mail in London, appeared the story of Mark McDonald, 43, of Norfolk, who suffered what the paper called “death by credit.” Like your authors, the man was a writer. Like your authors, he was not particularly well paid. But unlike your authors, he had a great number of credit cards. His debt rose to about $120,000—on which he made minimum payments as long as he was able. But the burden of it got to be too great, and the father of two decided he would rather place himself on the rails in front of the 7:09 to London instead of remaining in the ranks of the indebted.

“Mr. McDonald's death was the fifth known suicide due to debt in the past two years,” said the Mail. How can you account for such a bizarre action? How can you model it? How can you predict it?

McDonald's wife blasted the credit industry: “They are just interested in making money,” said the woman. But who isn't? And five suicides in two years seems like a small price to pay for the benefits of unlimited consumer credit on which the whole grand tower of early twenty‐first‐century civilization was built.

The Daily Mail report had a certain fin de bubble tone to it. Twice as many people were calling for credit counseling that year as the year before, the paper noted. Twenty‐five thousand picked up the phone in one month. What's more, for every decisive writer like McDonald there must be thousands of wishy‐washy plumbers and doughy bakers who couldn't make up their minds. They ...