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Metrics and Methods for Security Risk Management by Carl Young

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Chapter 4. Measuring the likelihood component of security risk
When the personality of a human is involved, exact predictions are hazardous. — McCoy
“The Lights of Zetar,” Star Trek, Stardate 5725.6
Random chance seems to have operated in our favor. Spock
In plain, non-Vulcan English, we've been lucky. McCoy
I believe I said that, Doctor. Spock
“The Doomsday Machine,” Star Trek, Stardate 4202.9
It would be illogical to assume that all conditions remain stable. — Spock
“The Enterprise Incident,” Star Trek, Stardate 5027
4.1. Introduction
An accurate estimate of the likelihood that a threat will be directed against a particular facility or entity would be extremely useful information pursuant to the development of a risk mitigation strategy. Security professionals ...

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