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Mapping The Markets

Book Description

How stockmarkets have behaved in the past and how to analyse their future behaviour. This book is about how to analyse the way markets are likely to behave and it combines the two approaches used by market analysts: technical analysis, which is based on the belief that price reflects everything that is known about a particular market; and fundamental analysis, which takes into account all kinds of factors in order to determine the correct price of an asset. It is in four parts:

  • A kind of global overview, at the heart of which is an examination of the business cycle, including how the 50-year Kondratieff, 10-year jugular and 4-year Kitchin waves fit together
  • How stockmarkets are affected by the cycles and seasonal and secular trends . How to identify sectors and stocks to invest in
  • Future stockmarket drivers - an analysis of some of the innovations, such as fuel cell technology, that will power the next upward leg of the cycle

It spells out where you should invest to profit from the next big wave of industrialisation and innovation. It is essential reading for all investors.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
    1. Dedication
  2. Acknowledgements
  3. Introduction
    1. Part 1 Tools for mapping the markets
    2. Part 2 Long-term cyclical drivers
    3. Part 3 Downward phases of the cycle
    4. Part 4 Taking market bearings
  4. Tools for mapping the markets
    1. 1 Economic cycles
      1. Historical analysis of the business cycle
      2. The long-term Kondratieff cycle
      3. The shorter-term Kitchin wave
      4. Schumpeter’s three-cycle schema
      5. “Clusters of innovations” power the uptrend
      6. The positive effects of “creative destruction”
      7. What is a cycle?
      8. Secular trends
    2. 2 Stockmarket cycles
      1. The four-year cycle
      2. Seasonal trends
      3. Interaction between the four-year and ten-year cycles
      4. Elliott wave
    3. 3 Sector rotation
      1. The low point
      2. The mid-point
      3. Rising confidence
      4. The “impulsive” phase
      5. After the peak
    4. 4 Stock selection
      1. A fundamental double check
      2. Applying technical analysis across different markets
      3. The power of positive momentum
      4. Trends within markets
      5. Chart patterns
      6. Choosing which indicator to use
  5. Long-term cyclical drivers
    1. 5 Economic catch-up
      1. China
      2. India
      3. Economic catch-up is on an unstoppable path
    2. 6 Demographic trends
      1. Demographic transition
      2. The economic consequences of ageing populations
      3. Spending surges
      4. The baby boomers
      5. Migration
      6. Varying effect of demographic trends
    3. 7 Energy
      1. Power generation
      2. The great car economy
      3. High energy prices should spur innovation
    4. 8 Biotechnology
      1. Molecular medicine
      2. Personalised medicine
      3. Summary
  6. Downward phases of the cycle
    1. 9 Global imbalances
      1. US current-account deficit
      2. High saving ratios in Asia
      3. An unsustainable imbalance
    2. 10 External events
      1. Influenza pandemic
      2. Water shortage
      3. Summary
  7. Taking market bearings
    1. 11 Stockmarkets
      1. The United States
      2. Japan
      3. UK
      4. Europe
      5. China
      6. India
    2. 12 Sectors
      1. Commodities
      2. Luxury goods
      3. Biotechnology
    3. Conclusion
      1. The changing economic landscape
      2. Political challenges
      3. Investment opportunity of the century
    4. Note on sources
    5. Bibliography
      1. Introduction
      2. Part 1 Tools for mapping the markets
      3. 1 Economic cycles
      4. 2 Stockmarket cycles
      5. 4 Stock selection
      6. Part 3 Long-term cyclical drivers
      7. 5 Catch-up industrialisation
      8. 6 Demographics
      9. 7 Energy
      10. 8 Biotechnology
      11. Part 3 Downward phases of the cycle
      12. 9 Global imbalances
      13. 10 Negative shocks
      14. Part 4 Taking market bearings
      15. 11 Stockmarkets
      16. 12 Sectors
      17. Conclusion
      18. Further reading