Planning for Predictability

The manufacturing mindset tells managers they can predict the software they want and then build it.

Why would they assume that? Consider real life. What can you predict there? Very little. The norm is unpredictability, for everything from stock prices to the weather, but most managers try to predict the smallest details of their software projects anyway. You can see this if you look carefully at the typical software development plan again. It assumes we can predict the future far enough in advance, with enough detail, and with enough accuracy to plan for almost everything.

Most plans contain sections dealing with scope, contingencies, and assumptions. The names might be different, but all that stuff is usually in there. ...

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