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Managing Commodity Price Risk by Lutz Kaufmann, Barbara Gaudenzi, Janet L. Hartley, George A. Zsidisin

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CHAPTER 3

Forecasting Short-Term Commodity Prices

Short- and long-term commodity price forecasts help you to make better risk management decisions. Long-term forecasts are looking out in the future, one year or more. Short-term forecasts look ahead to the next few weeks, months, or quarters.

In this chapter, we describe how to use technical analysis to develop short-term forecasts, and in Chapter 4, we discuss long-term forecasts. Technical analysis reviews historical price patterns, and forecasts are based on assumptions about future price patterns. The only data used in technical analysis are historical prices. The theory supporting technical analysis suggests all marketplace information about a commodity is incorporated into its price. As ...

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