Making the Team: A Guide for Managers

Decision-Making Pitfall 4: Group Polarization

Consider the case in Box 6-5. Most people independently evaluating the problem state that the new company would need to have nearly a two-thirds probability of success before they would advise Mr. A. to leave his current job and accept a new position (Stoner, 1961). What do you think happens when the same people discuss Mr. A.'s situation and are instructed to reach consensus?

You might expect the outcome of the team to be the same as the average of the individuals considered separately. However, this is not what happens. The group advises Mr. A. to take the new job, even if it only has slightly better than a 50-50 chance of success! In other words, groups show a risky shift.

Now consider a situation ...