Learning from Catastrophes: Strategies for Reaction and Response

4. Cognitive Constraints and Behavioral Biases

Seán Cleary

Parmenides Center for the Study of Thinking

Overview

This chapter discusses cognitive constraints and behavioral biases that influence our appreciation of the complex systems that characterize many natural disasters. Both personal behavior and public policy often lead to perverse results. Although traditional economic theory suggests that people make rational decisions based on information about costs and benefits, we cannot do this when addressing the complex systemic interactions that give rise to many natural disasters. We have too little information to make rational choices. We also assess risk subjectively, based on our beliefs, feelings, and prior intellectual constructs. Public ...