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Investing in the Second Lost Decade: A Survival Guide for Keeping Your Profits Up When the Market Is Down by Tom J. Kopas, Joe D. Turner, Martin J. Pring

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CHAPTER 8HOW TO IDENTIFY THE BUSINESS CYCLE STAGES USING EASY-TO-FOLLOW INDICATORS

Previously we pointed out that the business cycle is really a road map for the financial markets and their interaction. In this chapter we present some ideas to help you identify where the cycle might be at any one point in time. This is certainly a legitimate question for our friends the Smiths, who may be wondering how they can possibly keep track of where they are in the business cycle. More to the point, they would want to know what stage they are in and where the risks and opportunities lie.

Some Background Factors

In our money management operation we have traditionally used models or barometers to determine the prevailing stage of the cycle. There are three ...

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