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Introduction to Statistical Methods for Biosurveillance by Ronald D. Fricker

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10

Comparing Methods to Better Understand and Improve Biosurveillance Performance

When I have fully decided that a result is worth getting I go ahead of it and make trial after trial until it comes.

Thomas A. Edison (1847–1931)

This chapter builds on Chapter 9, synthesizing everything from the first eight chapters (and Appendix B) to demonstrate how to compare the performance of early event detection (EED) methods using simulation. Assessing EED performance via simulation is critical because, as shown in the last chapter, comparisons using real data are limited in a number of ways.

The first limitation is that real data are opaque and often unknowable. For example, it is virtually impossible to specify with certainty when a known outbreak ...

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