Book description
Praise for INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
"John Murphy has done it again. He dissects the global relationships between equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities like no one else can, and lays out an irrefutable case for intermarket analysis in plain English. This book is a must-read for all serious traders."
-Louis B. Mendelsohn, creator of VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software
"John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis should be on the desk of every trader and investor if they want to be positioned in the right markets at the right time."
-Thom Hartle, President, Market Analytics, Inc. (www.thomhartle.com
)
"This book is full of valuable information. As a daily practitioner of intermarket analysis, I thought I knew most aspects of this invaluable subject, but this book gave me several new ideas. I thoroughly recommend it for beginners and professionals."
-Martin Pring, President of Pring.com and editor of the Intermarket Review Newsletter
"Mr. Murphy's Intermarket Analysis is truly the most efficient and unambiguous way to define economic and fundamental relationships as they unfold in the market. It cuts through all of the conflicting economic news/views expressed each day to provide a clear picture of the 'here and now' in the global marketplace."
-Dennis Hynes, Managing Director, R. W. Pressprich
"Master Murphy is back with the quintessential look at intermarket analysis. The complex relationships among financial instruments have never been more important, and this book brings it all into focus. This is an essential read for all investors."
-Andrew Bekoff, Technical Strategist, VDM NYSE Specialists
"John Murphy is a legend in technical analysis, and a master at explaining precisely how the major markets impact each other. This updated version provides even more lessons from the past, plus fresh insights on current market trends."
-Price Headley, BigTrends.com, author of Big Trends in Trading
Table of contents
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Dedication
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
-
CHAPTER 1 - A Review of the 1980s
- COMMODITIES PEAK IN 1980
- DOLLAR BOTTOMS IN 1980
- BONDS BOTTOM IN 1981
- STOCKS BOTTOM IN 1982
- HOW THE FOUR MARKET GROUPS INTERRELATE
- 1987 STOCK MARKET CRASH REVISITED
- COMMODITIES RISE, BONDS FALL DURING SPRING OF 1987
- STOCK MARKET PEAKS IN AUGUST
- DOLLAR FALLS WITH STOCKS
- THE 1987 MARKET CRASH WAS GLOBAL
- LATER EXAMPLES OF GLOBAL LINKAGES
- THE DOLLAR’S IMPACT CAN BE DELAYED
- ONWARD AND UPWARD TO 1990
-
CHAPTER 2 - 1990 and the First Persian Gulf War
- BONDS TURN DOWN IN EARLY 1990
- CRB TURNS UP IN EARLY 1990
- BONDS AND STOCKS DIVERGE
- GLOBAL MARKETS DON’T CONFIRM U.S. RALLY
- IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT IN AUGUST
- OIL AND GOLD SOAR
- EVERYTHING REVERSES AT THE START OF WAR
- 1990 DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OIL AND OIL SHARES
- THE IMPORTANCE OF $40 OIL
- INTERMARKET LESSONS LEARNED DURING 1990
- COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 1991
- JAPAN NEVER RECOVERS
-
CHAPTER 3 - The Stealth Bear Market of 1994
- THINGS LOOK GOOD FROM 1990 THROUGH 1993
- A DESCRIPTION OF THE CRB INDEX
- THE CRB INDEX TURNS UP IN EARLY 1993
- WATCH INDUSTRIAL PRICES
- THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE (JOC-ECRI) INDEX
- GOLD AND OIL ARE ALSO IMPORTANT
- GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX
- BONDS PEAK AHEAD OF STOCKS
- THE STEALTH BEAR MARKET
- A LOSS FOR UTILITIES IS A GAIN FOR METALS IN 1994
- INTERMARKET PICTURE REVERSES IN 1995
- THE CRB/BOND RATIO
- BONDS AND STOCKS RISE TOGETHER UNTIL 1998
-
CHAPTER 4 - The 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and Deflation
- ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS STARTS IN 1997
- BONDS AND STOCKS START TO DECOUPLE
- THE DEFLATION SCENARIO
- 1997 AND 1998 WERE ONLY A DRESS REHEARSAL
- INTERMARKET PICTURE DURING 1997 AND 1998
- THE DOLLAR VERSUS COMMODITIES
- HONG KONG AND INDUSTRIAL METALS PEAK TOGETHER
- COMMODITIES VERSUS BONDS
- BONDS VERSUS STOCKS
- BONDS AND STOCKS DIVERGE IN 1998
- THE CRB/BOND RATIO AND SECTOR ROTATION
- CONSUMER VERSUS CYCLICAL STOCKS
- CRB/BOND RATIO COLLAPSES DURING 1997
- RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS
- PLOTTING A RATIO OF TWO COMPETING SECTORS
- INTERMARKET LESSONS OF 1997 AND 1998
-
CHAPTER 5 - 1999 Intermarket Trends Leading to Market Top
- 1999 SEES REVERSAL OF 1998 TRENDS
- COMMODITIES JUMP AT START OF 1999
- COMMODITIES AND RATES TREND TOGETHER
- INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES AND OIL BOTTOM
- THE IMPACT OF RISING RATES ON STOCKS
- NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE FALLS IN 1999
- INTERMARKET SECTOR EFFECT
- RISING CRUDE WAS GOOD FOR OIL SHARES
- TRANSPORTATION STOCKS FALL HARD
- FINANCIAL STOCKS LOSE FAVOR DURING 1999
- OTHER SECTOR INFLUENCES
- SECTOR ROTATION AND THE ECONOMY
- GLOBAL INFLUENCES IN 1999
- HONG KONG AND SEMICONDUCTORS
- THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR AND COMMODITY PRICES
-
CHAPTER 6 - Review of Intermarket Principles
- INTRODUCTION
- AN EVOLUTIONARY STEP IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- EMPHASIS ON SECTOR WORK
- ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGIES
- THE BASIC PREMISE OF INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
- GLOBAL MARKETS
- GLOBAL SECTOR TRENDS
- JAPAN’S EFFECT ON U.S. MARKETS
- JAPAN EFFECT OVERRIDES THE FED
- ECONOMIC LESSONS
- THE TECHNICAL NATURE OF INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
- ADVANTAGES OF CHARTING—THE BIG VIEW
- ECONOMIC FORECASTING
- MARKETS ANTICIPATE ECONOMIC TRENDS
- THE ROLE OF THE DOLLAR
- GLOBAL IMPACT OF CURRENCY TRENDS
- DOLLAR IMPACT ON MULTINATIONALS
- MCDONALDS AND PROCTER & GAMBLE PROFIT FROM WEAK DOLLAR
- DOLLAR IMPACT ON DRUG STOCKS
- SMALL STOCKS ARE DOMESTIC
- WEAK DOLLAR ALSO HELPS SERVICE STOCKS
- RECAP OF INTERMARKET PRINCIPLES
-
CHAPTER 7 - The Nasdaq Bubble Bursts in 2000
- AN HISTORIC YEAR
- INVERTED YIELD CURVE IMPLIES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS
- THE WARNING SIGNS WERE THERE ON THE CHARTS
- SEEING THINGS AS THEY HAPPEN
- JANUARY 30, 2000: YIELD CURVE INVERSION
- 1969 ALL OVER AGAIN?
- JANUARY LOWS BROKEN
- CASH IS GOOD
- APRIL 15, 2000: NASDAQ BREAKS MOVING AVERAGE LINE-NYSE FAILURE
- REITS HOLD UP
- REITS SHOW GOOD RELATIVE STRENGTH
- REIT INDEX TURNS UP
- APRIL 21, 2000: MARKET’S ECONOMIC MESSAGE—ECONOMIC SLOWING
- COPPER AND LONG RATES PEAK TOGETHER AT START OF 2000
- ECONOMIC WEAKNESS FAVORS CONSUMER STAPLES
- CONSUMER STAPLES START TO OUTPERFORM
- THINGS COULD NOT BE BETTER
- AUGUST 11, 2000: SHIFT TO VALUE
- SECTOR ROTATION WITHIN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE
- WHY IT IS BAD WHEN ENERGY AND CONSUMER STAPLES ARE STRONG
- NOVEMBER 10, 2000: IT’S THE ECONOMY
- TWOFOLD USE OF SECTOR ROTATION DIAGRAM
- THE LESSONS OF 2000
-
CHAPTER 8 - Intermarket Picture in Spring 2003
- FLIGHT TO GOLD
- BONDS AND COMMODITIES TREND IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
- SEPTEMBER 11 REVERSALS
- COMMODITIES FOLLOW THE LEAD OF STOCKS
- STOCKS LEAD COMMODITIES HIGHER
- BOND AND STOCK PRICES TREND IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
- SEPTEMBER 11 REVERSES TRENDS
- FALLING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR GOLD
- MAY 22, 2002: MAJOR DOLLAR TOP IN THE MAKING
- FALLING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR GOLD
- GOLD STOCKS SHINE
- ONE YEAR LATER: THE FED DISCOVERS DEFLATION
- LETTING THE DOLLAR FALL
-
CHAPTER 9 - Falling Dollar During 2002 Boosts Commodities
- COMMODITIES INFLATE
- DOLLAR PEAK COINCIDES WITH COMMODITY BOTTOM
- BONDS AND COMMODITIES DECOUPLE
- WAR PREMIUM PUSHES OIL HIGHER
- COMMODITY DIVERGENCE: WEATHER VERSUS THE ECONOMY
- INDUSTRIAL METALS AND INTEREST RATES TREND TOGETHER
- COMMODITY PRICES AND BOND YIELDS NORMALLY TREND TOGETHER
- ASIAN DEFLATION PULLS U.S. RATES LOWER
- GLOBAL BEAR
- JAPAN PULLING WORLD MARKETS LOWER
- DEFLATION SCENARIO: U.S. STOCKS AND RATES FALL TOGETHER
- COMMODITIES GAIN FROM BATTLE AGAINST DEFLATION
- DOLLAR TOP LEADS TO NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD
- SWING BACK TO HARD ASSETS?
-
CHAPTER 10 - Shifting from Paper to Hard Assets
- GOLD COMES BACK INTO FAVOR
- GOLD BREAKS 15-YEAR RESISTANCE LINE
- GOLD TURNS UP AS STOCKS TURN DOWN
- COMMODITIES OUTPERFORM STOCKS FOR FIRST TIME IN 20 YEARS
- WHY 2003 WAS NOT A REPLAY OF 1991
- CYCLICAL TRENDS VERSUS SECULAR
- HISTORICAL RESEARCH ON CYCLICAL BULLS
- SECULAR BEAR IN STOCKS IS GOOD FOR GOLD
- RISING CURRENCY MARKETS
- THE FALLING DOLLAR HURTS GLOBAL MARKETS
- CHINA NOT AFFECTED BY DOLLAR MOVES
- COMMODITY CURRENCIES RALLY
- USING THE FUTURES MARKETS
- NOT A LOT OF ALTERNATIVES IN TRADITIONAL MARKETS
- BUYING COMMODITY-RELATED STOCKS
-
CHAPTER 11 - Futures Markets and Asset Allocation
- RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS AMONG ASSET CLASSES
- BONDS VERSUS STOCKS
- COMMODITIES VERSUS BONDS
- THE DOW/GOLD RATIO
- INCLUDING COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES
- CAN FUTURES PLAY A ROLE IN ASSET ALLOCATION?
- BUILT-IN ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL
- CHARTS COMPARING FUTURES MARKETS—GOING LONG OR SHORT
- USING MANAGED FUTURES ACCOUNTS
- FUTURES PORTFOLIOS CORRELATE POORLY WITH BONDS AND STOCKS
- COMMODITY FUTURES AS AN ASSET CLASS
- PUSHING THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER
- TREATING CURRENCIES AS AN ASSET CLASS
- THE IMPACT OF A FALLING DOLLAR
- GOLD MEASURED IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES
- GOLD/CURRENCY RATIOS ARE RISING
- GOLD IS STRONGER THAN ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES
- SUMMARY
-
CHAPTER 12 - Intermarket Analysis and the Business Cycle
- THE FOUR-YEAR BUSINESS CYCLE
- THE BUSINESS CYCLE EXPLAINS INTERMARKET ROTATION
- THE CHRONOLOGICAL SEQUENCE OF BONDS, STOCKS, AND COMMODITIES
- BONDS ARE THE FOCAL POINT
- THE SIX STAGES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
- LESSONS OF 2000
- BONDS AS A LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR
- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS LEADING INDICATORS
- MORE ON THE JOC INDEX
- PREDICTING THE 2001 RECESSION
- THE THREE MARKETS FOLLOWED THE PROPER ROTATION FOR TOPS
- MARKET ROTATIONS DURING THE 1920s AND 1930s
- COMMODITIES PEAKED IN 1920
- BONDS BOTTOM DURING 1920
- STOCKS BOTTOM DURING 1921
- BONDS TURN DOWN IN 1928
- BONDS AND STOCKS DECOUPLE IN 1929—COMMODITIES PLUNGE
- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES BOTTOM TOGETHER IN EARLY 1930S
- REFLATING DURING THE 1930s
- BOND YIELDS SPIKE UP TEMPORARILY IN 1931
- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES COMPLETE BOTTOMS IN EARLY 1940s
- ROTATING ASSET CLASSES OVER DECADES
- LESSONS OF LONG CYCLES
- THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE
- DIVIDING A LIFETIME CYCLE INTO FOUR SEASONS
-
CHAPTER 13 - The Impact of the Business Cycle on Market Sectors
- SECTOR ROTATION WITHIN THE BUSINESS CYCLE
- SECTOR ROTATION IN 2000 FAVORED CONTRACTION
- ANOTHER VIEW OF THE ECONOMIC CYCLE
- SECTOR ROTATIONS DURING 2003 SUGGEST EARLY EXPANSION
- SECTOR LEADERSHIP MOVES TO CONSUMERS AND TECHNOLOGY
- RELATIVE STRENGTH OF CONSUMER SPENDING
- RETAIL BUYING
- TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP IS A GOOD SIGN
- NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER DURING 2003
- TRANSPORTATION LEADERSHIP
- CYCLICALS STARTING TO OUTPERFORM STAPLES
- SMALLER STOCKS LEAD AT BOTTOMS
- SECTOR ROTATION MODEL
- SECTOR ROTATION MODEL SUPPORTING DATA
- INTEREST RATE TRENDS
- THE YIELD CURVE
- YIELD CURVE FLATTENS DURING 2003
- ANOTHER VIEW OF THE YIELD CURVE
-
CHAPTER 14 - Diversifying with Real Estate
- LOCATION IS EVERYTHING
- THIS CYCLE HAS BEEN DIFFERENT
- REITS TURN UP AS NASDAQ PEAKS
- ROLE REVERSALS IN 2000
- THINGS START TO CHANGE DURING THE SUMMER OF 2002
- REITS PEAK IN 2002 AS MARKET BOTTOMS
- REITS UNDERPERFORM AFTER SUMMER OF 2002
- HOUSING IS INTEREST RATE-SENSITIVE
- REAL ESTATE DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW INFLATION
- REAL ESTATE DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW INTEREST RATES
- REAL ESTATE DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW STOCKS
- THE LONG CYCLE IN REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY
- COMPARISON TO OTHER CYCLES
- SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES: PRESENT DAY AND THE 1930s
- HISTORY OF REAL ESTATE CYCLE SINCE 1940
- ARE HOMEBUILDING STOCKS LINKED TO STOCKS OR RATES?
- HOMEBUILDERS DECOUPLE FROM MARKET DURING 1999
- HOUSING STOCKS LINK TO INTEREST RATES
- MARKET ROTATION DURING 2000
- HOMEBUILDERS AND STOCKS RE-LINK
- FED’S DEFLATION FIGHT BOOSTS HOUSING STOCKS
- THE HOUSING TRADEOFF
- JAPANESE REAL ESTATE COLLAPSED TWO YEARS AFTER STOCKS
-
CHAPTER 15 - Thinking Globally
- ALL MARKETS ARE RELATED
- GLOBAL TRADE INCREASES IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATES
- EMERGING MARKETS
- MORE INTERMARKET EMPHASIS ON SECTOR WORK
- THE INTERMARKET MODEL IS NOT STATIC
- BONDS AND STOCKS DECOUPLE
- WHY WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY
- THE DECADE AFTER MARKET BOOMS ARE NOT VERY GOOD
- INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- THE NEED FOR BETTER PERIPHERAL VISION
- INTERMARKET WORK IS AN EVOLUTIONARY STEP
- THERE IS STILL A LOT TO LEARN
- Appendix
- Index
Product information
- Title: Intermarket Analysis: Profiting from Global Market Relationships
- Author(s):
- Release date: January 2004
- Publisher(s): Wiley
- ISBN: 9780471023296
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