Application of the Risk Analysis
The spreadsheet displayed in Table8-1 provides all the information needed to determine the size of a risk factor to be inserted. The task overrun possibilities totaling 46.5 days are balanced against the likelihood that the tasks will not overrun by using the Δ times Y formula. The result of the calculation of contributions and adding them together is 7.55 days. Rounding up to eight days, this would be the risk factor to use for this string of tasks if there is no need for step-function adjustments.
There are five tasks in the list that have step-function characteristics. In four cases (3, 9, 13, and 34), the step functions (Δs) are small when compared to the risk factor. Their occurrences will average out just ...
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