Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts

Acknowledgments

A long and rewarding career in forecasting has importantly reflected the consistent support and intellectual stimulation provided by my colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank for International Settlements, PaineWebber, and UBS. Senior research management at those institutions rewarded me when I was right and were understanding at times when I was not so right. My colleagues over the years have been a source of inspiration, stimulation, criticism, and encouragement.

Special thanks are addressed to my professional investment clients at PaineWebber and UBS. Thoughtful and challenging questions from them have played a key role in my forming a commercially viable research agenda. Their financial support of my various economics teams via institutional brokerage commissions has always been much appreciated and never taken for granted in the highly competitive marketplace in which economic forecasters practice their trade.

For this book, the efforts on my behalf by my agent Jeffrey Krames, who led me to John Wiley & Sons, were essential. At Wiley, the editorial and publications support provided by Judy Howarth, Tula Batanchiev, Evan Burton, and Steven Kyritz were extremely helpful. And the guidance provided by my editorial consultant Tom Wynbrandt has been absolutely superb, as was the tech savvy contributed by Charles Harris. Also, thanks are due to Leigh Curry, Tom Doerflinger, Samuel Coffin, Drew Matus, Sheeba Joy, Lisa Harris Millhauser, and ...