Information Assurance

8.3. Predicting Attacker Behavior

To compute the expected attacker behavior, in terms of attack probabilities as part of the transition rates between states in a CTMC (see Section 8.2.2), one needs to consider the underlying reasons of why attacks occur in the first place. One of the most crucial factors in the analysis of attacker behavior is motivation. In Project [28], six major factors that motivate an attacker’s choices of action are identified:

1. Financial gain is the main source of motivation for actions such as credit card theft, blackmailing, or extraction of confidential information.

2. Entertainment can be the cause of hacking web sites or rerouting Internet browser requests.

3. The motive of ego is the satisfaction and rise in self-esteem that ...