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Improving Homeland Security Decisions by Detlof von Winterfeldt, Milind Tambe, Ali E. Abbas

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5 Coping with Uncertainty in Adversarial Risk Analysis

Vicki Bier and Tony Cox

Morgan, Henrion, and Small (1990) present a useful taxonomy of types of uncertainty. They note that uncertainties can arise from: (1) statistical variations (e.g., random error in direct measurements of a quantity); (2) systematic errors (e.g., biases in the measuring apparatus and experimental procedure); (3) subjective judgments (e.g., for quantities where empirical data are largely unavailable); (4) linguistic imprecision (e.g., translation of verbal phrases into numerical probabilities); (5) variability (e.g., quantities that vary over time or space, or from one person to another); (6) inherent randomness or unpredictability (which cannot be reduced by further ...

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