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Improving Homeland Security Decisions by Detlof von Winterfeldt, Milind Tambe, Ali E. Abbas

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4 Validating Terrorism Risk Assessment Models Lessons Learned from 11 Models

John Lathrop and Barry Ezell

4.1 Introduction

A defining risk of our time is the possibly growing capability of terrorist groups to fabricate and deliver weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). That risk is characterized by extreme possible consequences, including tens of thousands of fatalities and initiation of global conflict. Yet by some definitions of WMDs, we have not, as of this writing, observed even a single full-scenario event. There are three other interrelated aspects of that risk: (1) the essential terrorist-defender game aspect of the risk, where the terrorist may be intelligent and adaptive to defensive actions, and may make decisions based on poorly understood ...

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