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Improving Homeland Security Decisions by Detlof von Winterfeldt, Milind Tambe, Ali E. Abbas

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30 Near-Misses and Decision Making Under Uncertainty in the Context of Cybersecurity

Robin L. Dillon and Catherine H. Tinsley

30.1 Introduction

Most people think of near-misses as dreadful close calls that could have been a lot worse, but recent research has focused on another class of near-misses, ones that are far more common and overlooked. These more common events are often misinterpreted or ignored as signs that a system is resilient rather than signals that a negative event nearly happened. Dillon and Tinsley (2008) examine near-misses in the context of space systems motivated by NASAs loss of the space shuttle Columbia after prior problems with foam debris on nearly every previous mission but without catastrophe. Dillon, Tinsley, and Cronin ...

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