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Improving Homeland Security Decisions by Detlof von Winterfeldt, Milind Tambe, Ali E. Abbas

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28 Decision Analysis by Proxy for Adaptive Adversaries

Heather Rosoff and Richard S. John

Understanding motivations that drive terrorist group behavior is critical. Current methods for terrorism risk assessment focus on target vulnerability, terrorist capability and resources, and attack consequence. However, threat assessment requires consideration of the influence of terrorist group values and beliefs in shaping militant behavior. The understanding of terrorist values and beliefs has the potential to contribute to probabilistic estimates of terrorist threats.

Since we cannot collect information directly from terrorists, individuals who have studied the general topic of terrorism as well as Islamic terrorist groups (such as Al Qaeda) are asked ...

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