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Improving Homeland Security Decisions by Detlof von Winterfeldt, Milind Tambe, Ali E. Abbas

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2 Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk

Barry Ezell, Steven P. Bennett, Detlof von Winterfeldt, John Sokolowski, and Andrew J. Collins

2.1 Introduction

Probability is the guide to life.

Cicero (107 BC)

We have to identify and prioritize risks understanding the threat, the vulnerability and the consequence. And then we have to apply our resources in a cost-effective manner.

(Michael Chertoff, Former Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, 2006)

For more than 30 years, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been a major tool for assessing risks and informing risk management decisions by government and industry, in areas as diverse as environmental protection, industrial safety, and medical decision making. Applications of PRA ...

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