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Improving Homeland Security Decisions by Detlof von Winterfeldt, Milind Tambe, Ali E. Abbas

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19 Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism

Ryan J. B. Garcia and Detlof von Winterfeldt

19.1 Introduction

Risk and decision analysis models and tools have been widely used to estimate and manage the risks from natural disasters and technological accidents (Bedford & Cooke, 2001; Bier & Cox, 2007; Pate-Cornell, 2007). Thus, after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, it was natural to apply risk and decision analysis to terrorism events as well (Ezell, Bennett, von Winterfeldt, Sokolowski, & Collins, 2010; Pate-Cornell & Guikema, 2002; Willis, Morral, Kelly, & Medby, 2005). Former Secretary Michael Chertoff advocated risk-based approaches to decision making during his tenure at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security ...

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