Chapter 6. Bayesian Statistics: Get past first base

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You’ll always be collecting new data.

And you need to make sure that every analysis you do incorporates the data you have that’s relevant to your problem. You’ve learned how falsification can be used to deal with heterogeneous data sources, but what about straight up probabilities? The answer involves an extremely handy analytic tool called Bayes’ rule, which will help you incorporate your base rates to uncover not-so-obvious insights with ever-changing data.

The doctor has disturbing news

Your eyes are not deceiving you. Your doctor has given you a diagnosis of lizard flu.

The good news is that lizard flu is not fatal and, if you have it, you’re in for a full recovery after a few weeks of treatment. The bad news is that lizard flu is a big pain in the butt. You’ll have to miss work, and you will have to stay away from your loved ones for a few weeks.

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Your doctor is convinced that you have it, but because you’ve become so handy with data, you might want to take a look at the test and see just how accurate it is.

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