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Handbook of Economic Forecasting by Allan Timmermann, Graham Elliott

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Table 19.2

Contingency Table Cross-Classifying Forecasts of A and Observations Y

Image

Table 19.3

Contingency Table Cross-Classifying Forecasts of B and Observations Y

Image

Here A and B are image binary point forecasts. If forecast skill is measured by the Brier score, then A performs better than B since its Brier score is about image, less than B’s score of

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