O'Reilly logo

Handbook of Economic Forecasting by Allan Timmermann, Graham Elliott

Stay ahead with the world's most comprehensive technology and business learning platform.

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required

Chapter 1

Forecasting Inflation

Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright,     Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD 21218, USA, E-mail: faustj@jhu.edu, wrightj@jhu.edu

Abstract

This chapter discusses recent developments in inflation forecasting. We perform a horse-race among a large set of traditional and recently developed forecasting methods, and discuss a number of principles that emerge from this exercise. We find that judgmental survey forecasts outperform model-based ones, often by a wide margin. A very simple forecast that is just a glide path between the survey assessment of inflation in the current-quarter and the long-run survey forecast value turns out to be competitive with the actual survey forecast and thereby ...

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required