Guide to Decision Making: Getting it More Right than Wrong

Contents

Acknowledgements

Introduction

Chapter 1: Illusions of Control: The Confidence Trap

Illusions of Control

The Confidence Trap

Success and Luck: The Deadly Cocktail

Bunker Mentality

Avoiding the Overconfidence Trap

Risk as Choice

Chapter 2: Blinkered Vision: The Judgment Trap

Look no Further: Confirmation Traps

Why First Impressions Matter: Anchoring Traps

Seen it All Before: Analogy Traps

Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Availability Traps

Alluring Images: Vividness Traps

Too Good to Lose?

Emotional Rollercoaster: Instant-Response Traps

Two Dead Fish: Expectation Traps

Expectations are Reality

Surprise, Surprise . . .

Avoiding Judgmental Traps

All that Glitters: Evaluating Opportunity

Separating Heart and Head

When not to Make a Decision

“Only the Paranoid Survive”

Chapter 3: Ghosts and Shadows: Where is Reality?

What is a Problem?

What Do Hierarchies Really Do?

Solving the Wrong Problem

The Invented Reality

Rushing a Solution

Solving Problems that Do not Exist

Subtle Movements

Corporate Myopia

Reality as Myth

The Ruling Myth

Mythical Rights and Wrongs

Go Slow to Go Fast

The Problem Behind the Problem

Listening to Galileo: Conceptual Blockbusting

Second-Order Thinking

Stop Problems Before they Start

Solve the Right Problem

Apply the “Because” Test

Finding the Lobster: The Importance of Mind States

Expecting the Unexpected

Fact or Fiction?

Testing Reality

Chapter 4: Gorilla in the Room: Information and Decision-Making

How Do We Know What We Think We Know?

Where the Unexpected Come ...