Chapter 6
Not All Contrarian Thinkers Are Crazy
Conventional Wisdom Dies in an Unconventional Economy
When an economy takes a nosedive, a great many intelligent people (and organizations) slip into a frozen state of denial. While the quarterly reports clearly indicate a steady decline in revenue and/or market share, many of the leaders can't believe it's real.
“Something is wrong.” Someone suggests, “Let's study this.”
“Maybe it has nothing to do with us?”
“Right, it is probably an overall market malaise.”
A few organizations change. Others panic. Most do nothing. It's as if the leaders are thinking, “We've weathered storms before. Let's wait it out.” Can't you imagine them trying to convince their board of directors (and themselves) by making statements like “We always snap back” or “We've come too far to fail now”?
When you think about organizations like Xerox, General Motors, Kodak, Polaroid, and Blockbuster, which went from market share bulls to hibernating bears, you can imagine how impossible it must have been for them to believe the good old days were truly gone. But, sadly, they were. On the other hand, smaller, more nimble organizations—those that don't have the war chests to wait it out—see the downward trend and immediately take action. Instead of waiting, they decide to aggressively explore the unconventional approaches. They scour the market for opportunities—often opportunities that their competition is too scared to consider.
