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Global Dynamics

Book Description

A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid.

This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions.  This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales.

Global dynamics:

  • Presents in depth models of global dynamics.
  • Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid.
  • Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development.
  • Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development.
  • Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts.

This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
    1. Copyright
  3. Notes on Contributors
  4. Acknowledgements
  5. Part One: Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science
    1. Chapter 1: Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science
      1. Reference
  6. Part Two: Trade and Economic Development
    1. Chapter 2: The Global Trade System and Its Evolution
      1. 2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports' System
      2. 2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network
      3. 2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective
      4. 2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective
      5. References
      6. Appendix
      7. A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics
    2. Chapter 3: An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade
      1. 3.1 Introduction
      2. 3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration
      3. 3.3 Model Layers
      4. 3.4 The Workings of the Model
      5. 3.5 Model Calibration
      6. 3.6 Result 1: Steady State
      7. 3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM
      8. 3.8 Discussion and Conclusions
      9. References
    3. Chapter 4: A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input–Output Models
      1. 4.1 Introduction
      2. 4.2 Existing Global Economic Models
      3. 4.3 Description of the Model
      4. 4.4 Solving the Model
      5. 4.5 Analysis
      6. 4.6 Conclusions
      7. Acknowledgements
      8. References
      9. Appendix
      10. A.1 Modelling the ‘Rest of the World’
      11. A.2 Services Trade Data
  7. Part Three: Migration
    1. Chapter 5: Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres
      1. 5.1 Introduction
      2. 5.2 Policy and Migration Research
      3. 5.3 Conclusion
      4. References
      5. Appendix
      6. A.1 United Kingdom
      7. A.2 Rest of Europe
      8. A.3 Rest of the World
    2. Chapter 6: Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe
      1. 6.1 Introduction
      2. 6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge
      3. 6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology
      4. 6.4 Model Parameter Calibration
      5. 6.5 Model Experiments
      6. 6.6 Results
      7. 6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe
      8. References
    3. Chapter 7: Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows – An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data
      1. 7.1 Introduction
      2. 7.2 Methodology
      3. 7.3 Results and Validation
      4. 7.4 Discussion
      5. 7.5 Conclusions
      6. References
  8. Part Four: Security
    1. Chapter 8: Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat
      1. 8.1 Introduction
      2. 8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space–Time Patterning of Events
      3. 8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models
      4. 8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots
      5. 8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat
      6. 8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict
      7. References
    2. Chapter 9: Riots
      1. 9.1 Introduction
      2. 9.2 The 2011 Riots in London
      3. 9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion
      4. 9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice
      5. 9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots
      6. 9.6 Discussion
      7. References
    3. Chapter 10: Rebellions
      1. 10.1 Introduction
      2. 10.2 Data
      3. 10.3 Hawkes model
      4. 10.4 Results
      5. 10.5 Discussion
      6. References
    4. Chapter 11: Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy
      1. 11.1 The Model
      2. 11.2 The Test Case
      3. 11.3 Uses of the Model
      4. Reference
      5. Appendix
      6. A.1 Volume Field of Type <img xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:ibooks="http://vocabulary.itunes.apple.com/rdf/ibooks/vocabulary-extensions-1.0" src="images/c11-math-0048.png" alt="c11-math-0048" style="vertical-align:middle;"></img> Ship Ship
      7. A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units
      8. A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships
    5. Chapter 12: Space–Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq
      1. 12.1 Introduction
      2. 12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq
      3. 12.3 Counterinsurgency Data
      4. 12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space–Time Distributions
      5. 12.5 Concluding Comments
      6. References
    6. Chapter 13: International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict
      1. 13.1 Introduction
      2. 13.2 Global Information Flows
      3. 13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict
      4. 13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression
      5. 13.5 Conclusion
      6. References
      7. Appendix
  9. Part Five: Aid and Development
    1. Chapter 14: International Development Aid: A Complex System
      1. 14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems' Perspective
      2. 14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions
      3. 14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System
      4. 14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research
      5. 14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid
      6. 14.6 Relationships and Interactions
      7. 14.7 Conclusions
      8. References
    2. Chapter 15: Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid
      1. 15.1 Introduction
      2. 15.2 Data Collection
      3. 15.3 Model Building
      4. 15.4 Discussion and Future Work
      5. References
    3. Chapter 16: Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective
      1. 16.1 Aid Allocation Networks
      2. 16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model
      3. 16.3 Application of the Model
      4. 16.4 Remarks
      5. Acknowledgements
      6. References
      7. Appendix
      8. A.1 Common Functional Definitions
  10. Part Six: Global Dynamics: An Integrated Model and Policy Challenges
    1. Chapter 17: An Integrated Model
      1. 17.1 Introduction
      2. 17.2 Adding Migration
      3. 17.3 Adding Aid
      4. 17.4 Adding Security
      5. 17.5 Concluding Comments
      6. References
    2. Index
  11. End User License Agreement